Boris and the EU Referendum by Derek Wyatt
The whole EU referendum will make or break dear old, scruffy Boris. He lives for the day when he will be Prime Minister.
But in between his travels abroad which amount to no more than photo opportunities, his writing - Churchill in 2014, Shakespeare later this year - and his weekly columns in the Daily Telegraph, it is clear he is wavering about how to play Europe.
If you pore over his speeches, Boris is for the UK withdrawing. But. But what if? What if he actively campaigns for Britain's withdrawal and the vote is substantially for us staying in? Boris's political career will be over. He will never be Prime Minister. Cameron's successor still looks to be George Osborne.
So my hunch is Boris will sit on the fence but when pushed will argue that Cameron's changes he has won in Brussels are just enough for him to support staying in. He will leave all this to the last moment. He will decide it is in his interest - for once - to keep his trap shut.
It looks like the referendum will be in September. The Queen will be celebrating her 90th birthday on 10th June so that rules out June. A three week campaign in July looks difficult but not impossible. September looks the more likely. Whilst everyone might think the Prime Minister would not call it during the Party conferences what better way to transform them than by doing just that?
At the moment the Leave It campaign is chaotic with three organisations claiming the title. Just gradually - week by week - the Stay In group looks to be drawing ahead. It would be a disaster if the nation withdrew. But if it did there would be five years of negotiations to pull out which may cost the tax payer £3-4billion. At which point a new Prime Minister might just call a second referendum!